Big Brother ratings 'may fall 25%'

Claire Cozens
guardian.co.uk, Monday May 21 2001 12.20 BST

Big Brother 2000

With all eyes on ITV's Survivor, rival show Big Brother is struggling to get in on the hype.

And now there is evidence that, second time round, Big Brother will struggle to repeat last summer's ratings sensation.

A leading advertising agency is predicting that viewing figures for Big Brother 2 will be down by as much as a quarter on last year's show.

Figures from Media Planning show viewers in Spain and the Netherlands, which have already broadcast two series of the show, were far less enthusiastic about the show second time round.

In both countries, audience ratings were down by between 20% and 25% on the first series.

If Britain follows the same pattern, it would give Channel 4 5-6m for Big Brother 2, which peaked at just over 8m viewers last year when the winner was announced.

"Big Brother was Britain's first reality TV show and it really took off," says Andrew Canter, the broadcast director at Media Planning.

"But the schedules are now full of reality shows. I think this time it will start off reasonably well, but you would expect some sort of drop-off from last year.

"The unknown quantity is the effect of competition from Survivor, which could push Big Brother's ratings down even more."

Survivor starts tonight on ITV, giving it a headstart over Big Brother 2. ITV bosses are hoping for audiences of around 12m for the £5m show.

And Survivor is already enjoying far more hype than its Channel 4 rival.

Reporters from several tabloid newspapers were sent to the tropical island that hosts the contest in a no-expenses-spared PR drive that has already secured acres of media coverage.

At the end of the day, TV pundits are predicting that Survivor's photogenic desert island setting will prove more alluring than Big Brother's East End pre-fab, with or without the hot-tub.

MediaGuardian.co.uk special report
Big Brother